Madhav Sethi
Blog.
A blog on geopolitics, markets, gold & macro — connecting world events to markets, in plain English.
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Genuine Reform, Real Contradiction, Fixable: India's DAP 2026, Operation Sindoor, and the Tempo Problem
Whether India's new defence-buying rulebook — DAP 2026 — answers the war it just fought: genuine reform, a real internal contradiction, and the fix.
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Autonomy or Drift? India's Diplomacy from the Post-COVID 'Vishwaguru' to the 2026 Iran War
A balanced assessment of India's conduct, posture, and effectiveness across Trump's second term — and what its foreign-policy makers should do next.
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America Isn't Being Unmade. It's Being Un-Privileged.
On the US debt spiral, the slow erosion of dollar primacy, and why Ray Dalio is right about the direction and wrong about the speed.
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Is Bitcoin Forming a Bottom? An Adversarial Assessment of the Multi-Month Accumulation Thesis
Bitcoin sits ~50% off its high and just tagged its 200-week moving average. The on-chain evidence says 'value zone,' not 'confirmed bottom' — the adversarial read.
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SpaceX, the Force-Fed Valuation, and the AI-Lab Echo: A Skeptic's Field Guide
SpaceX IPO'd at $1.77T — the largest ever — then fell 20% once shorting arrived. Inside the force-fed private valuation, and why the AI labs are more exposed.
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The Quiet Gold Divergence of 2025–2026: How the World's Largest Reserve Buyers Went Dark
Central banks officially reported ~16t of Q1 2026 gold buying — but really bought ~244t. Inside the off-screen bid repricing gold and the dollar.
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The RBI's Battle for the Rupee: How India Is Defending Its Currency in 2025–2026
The rupee hit a record 96.9/$ in the 2026 oil shock. How the RBI is managing the decline — record dollar sales, a $103bn forward book, and a doctrine shift.
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The Versailles Memorandum: Inside the US-Iran Deal of June 18, 2026
Trump signed a 14-point deal with Iran at Versailles, ending the 2026 war — markets cheered, hawks revolted, and analysts read it as an American climbdown.